Nobody knows
So here we are supposedly coming out of COVID-19. Thank God for that. But wait – without a confirmed working vaccine then we may not be – life may have to go on like this with limited interaction with each other at limited venues. Nobody knows for sure until either a cure or a vaccine is developed. Even them COVID-19 may mutate – it is in viruses nature to do that.
Consumers have discovered modified ways of consuming and the power of online. Given that public transport is higher risk and that most big towns and cities have pushed private cars out of their centres then what are we all going to decide to do – now and in future. Nobody knows. Not yet anyhow.
Taking the operations of any one business and laying out a plan for the future is also tough. This is especially difficult for public companies where markets and shareholders expect that good decisions will be made. This is really the time that inflated executive pay might be justified as a result. Being Private means the same tough decisions but less spotlight and less constraint to be radical. This time radical may be good.
Private Equity must also be in something of a mess. I appreciate they don’t need 100% winners but nor do they need a high % of losers. The sin of private equity in loading its acquired companies with debt (so companies can buy themselves and give ownership to the P/E firms for free) has come home to roost. What might have been good companies have been destroyed and many more are approaching zombie status. Not even the gods of P/E know what is likely to happen for sure.
The economy also appears to be mightily buggered up by Covid-19. A great article in The Economist (who else) this week drew out the evolution of economic thinking from Keynesian to Monetarist to now and how economic theory has not managed to pinpoint “the truth”. At least not todays truth. We have massive debt and borrowing, tidal waves of cash flowing across the economy and yet no inflation. Interest rates might even go negative. So what do you do to try and get the economy moving? What are the short, medium and long term impacts of government intervention? Nobody knows – not even the Chancellor. Not the IMF or the World Bank or the BoE or the Fed. No firm view or formula to follow. Just guesses.
Employees are being held in furlough or laid off because it is just not certain that they will be needed. Just which people will be impacted is as yet unsure. What companies will survive when government support is withdrawn is also unsure. Sadly some people impacted know already but perhaps millions more do not.
COVID-19 came at a time that digital technology was really starting to bite on our world. The high street was already in decline and businesses of all shapes and industries were starting to automate processes, collect data, make new insights. Companies were already “rationalising” and COVID-19 has accelerated that evolution enormously. Out of necessity. Marginal “tweaks” do not seem appropriate courses of action during this period of extremes.
To summarise – nobody knows anything and everything is uncertain.
If you are a CIO or in IT leadership therefore you are currently in the thick of it – assuming you are lucky enough to maintain your job. So what do you need to focus on to survive and thrive. First of all, nothing ever changes – People skills are always number one. That includes your team, your boss, your peers and your customers and suppliers. You have to quickly assess and gauge the sentient beings in your world. They are the only raw material that will differentiate your product or service. Next you need to be able to make a flexible plan. Order out of chaos but able to swivel on a sixpence. That suggest small bites regularly and that means Agile – really agile combined with decent planning and real time monitoring of status. Innovation must be on the list BUT it is very hard to innovate to order so being able to build an environment that fosters innovation is the best bet.
Commerciality has always been a necessary attribute for IT leaders but now it requires even more insight. For what it is worth here are the 10 key skills I think decent CIO’s need to have a chance of success in 2020 onwards.
Excellent all round emotional intelligence and people skills.
Energy, vitality and Agility and an agile mindset
Ability to plan quickly and re-plan equally as fast.
Reactive to data. Collect and review data continuously. Live in real-time.
Foster the environment to innovate and let it look after itself.
Devise an agenda to identify what you and your team can do to help the bigger social context.
Continuous improvement obsession.
Clarity based on plan and data today – NOT yesterday.
Flexibility for your team to be as productive as they can be.
Be alert to the changing world around you – read widely.
Notice the complete lack of technical acuity in this list. We could all argue until the cows come home on that one (but please don’t – life is too short!)but I don’t think I would take any one of these out to make way for it. After all that is what CTO’s are for.
So that’s my current take on it and next week I may have a completely different view. After all – who knows!!